x<-c(0,1,3,3,4,5,5,7,7,8,9)
ts.plot(x)


xW<-HoltWinters(x,gamma=0)
plot(xW)
ts.plot(x)

xW

$$ ruolo di alpha (beta=0)

xW3<-HoltWinters(x,alpha=0.1, beta=0, gamma=0)
plot(xW3)
xW4<-HoltWinters(x,alpha=1, beta=0, gamma=0)
plot(xW4)

$$ aggiustamento tramite beta (alpha=0.9)

xW5<-HoltWinters(x,alpha=0.9, beta=0.2, gamma=0)
plot(xW5)

$$ predizione

p <- predict(xW, 5, prediction.interval = TRUE)
plot(xW,p)

p <- predict(xW5, 5, prediction.interval = TRUE)
plot(xW,p)

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$$ dopo aver eseguito i comandi della lez.10 sulla serie B0:

B0W<-HoltWinters(B0,gamma=0)
plot(B0W)
pB0 <- predict(B0W, lag, prediction.interval = TRUE)
plot(B0W,pB0)

B0W

----------------------------------

B0arima<-arima(B0, order = c(2, 1, 2))
pB0.arima<-predict(B0arima, n.ahead = lag)
plot(B0arma,pB0.arima)